Golf Analytics

How Golfers Win

Predicting Professional Performance of Collegiate Golfers (Part III)

Last month I posted several studies which measured how well collegiate golfers performed once they reached the professional level, compared to their Sagarin Rating during college. I updated my database with Challenge Tour results from 2011-2013 so this post is an update of those prior studies with slightly larger samples. Later this week I’ll post the results of a study using only the final two years of college performance to see if that predicts professional performance better.

This study uses the sample methodology as the study linked above in Part II. The sample size is 52, average # of college seasons was 3.4, average college performance was 70.8, average professional performance in Z-Score was +0.15.

college golf regression 3

 

The results were less predictive with the larger sample, but still R=0.59 stands as fairly predictive of professional performance. The equation to use is Pro Performance = (0.2113*Avg Sagarin) – 14.796.

Using this predictor my projections for several golfers who recently turned pro follow:
Justin Thomas -0.17
Chris Williams -0.03
T.J. Vogel +0.14
Cody Gribble +0.17
Pedro Figueiredo +0.18
Max Homa +0.21
Kevin Phelan +0.27
Jace Long +0.29
Steven Fox +0.43

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One response to “Predicting Professional Performance of Collegiate Golfers (Part III)

  1. Pingback: Predicting the Professional Performance of Collegiate Golfers (Part IV) | Golf Analytics

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