Golf Analytics

How Golfers Win

Predicting the Professional Performance of Collegiate Golfers (Part IV)

Earlier this week I posted the latest version of a study measuring how collegiate golfers perform in their first professional season compared to their average Sagarin rating in college. That study used every season of collegiate data, but considering golfers typically improve from freshman to senior year do the final two seasons of college predict pro performance better than using up to four seasons?

My sample was the same as the previous study linked above, except I used only the final two seasons of collegiate competition. For golfers like Rickie Fowler, who played only two seasons, the observed college performance didn’t change. For others it did.

N=52. Average Sagarin rating=70.47. Average pro performance=+0.15.

college golf regression 4

The results were slightly less predictive (R^2=0.294, R=0.54) than using all four seasons of data (R^2=0.356, R=0.59), suggesting that including the earlier data provides some value in predicting later results. I would guess this is because the college season is so short (around 40 rounds); using four seasons provides twice the sample size and a more reliable observation of performance, even if the overall performance was worse. For the record, using only the final season gives R^2=0.205, R=0.45.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: