Golf Analytics

How Golfers Win

How He Won: Jimmy Walker (Pebble Beach Pro-am)

Jimmy Walker did it again. After taking home both the Frys.com Open and Sony Open to begin his season, Walker burst out to a huge lead after round 3 and survived a pretty poor 4th round to win by one at Pebble Beach. I wrote about Walker in my Thursday post, noting that he gained a lot on the field with two hole-outs for birdie from far off the green – overall scrambling 5/5 on Thursday. He kept that up at Monterrey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill, finishing Saturday having successfully scrambled 15 of 16 missed greens. Even considering his poor 2/5 on Sunday he finished at 81% for the tournament. The field, over all four rounds and three courses, scrambled at 56%; Walker gained over 5 strokes on the field just through his scrambling.

Walker’s other conventional stats were strong as well. He hit 72% of his greens for the week (field hit 63%) and out-drove the competition by 8 yards.

Thankfully this is the last multi-course event of the season so a clearer statistical picture will be available for the winners going forward. This week in particular I have no idea how much putting factored into Walker’s success because we don’t have Strokes Gained Putting numbers or even shot tracker data for Spyglass Hill or Monterrey Peninsula. As I noted on Thursday, Walker’s putting wasn’t particularly notable. His SGP figure was 0.76, which is great on average, but fairly low for being one of the best rounds of the day. His success was mostly driven by the aforementioned two hole-outs and a slew of approach shots hit close. Then on Sunday he putted horribly (-1.51 SGP). Despite generating 3.9 expected birdies, he only converted 3 of them.

Walker’s main issue on Sunday was leaving his birdie putts too far from the hole. He birdied 3 holes and had putts for par on 14 more (#10 he was forced to recover from the fairway bunker which cost him a stroke). Of those 14 par putts, he left his on #1, #12, and #13 beyond 10 feet – making bogey on all three holes. He almost did the same on #18 when he needed to par to win outright, but kept his par putt to 5 feet despite rolling it aggressively past the hole.

I hope to have more this week detailing just what Walker is doing differently this year that he didn’t last year, but  I don’t think I’ll find much. Walker rated very highly in the Z-Score model last year (and had five top tens) despite really not getting any attention (probably because he missed 6/9 cuts to close the season). Walker is just the third player in the last ten years to win twice before arriving at Riviera (counting his fall win is unfair to the competition). Phil began 2005 with two wins in six events before winning twice more, while Mark Wilson began 2011 with two wins in six events before basically reverting back to the average player he was prior to that run. It’s anyone’s guess what Walker will do the rest of the season, but with 3.6 million banked already, he should make arrangements to be in Scotland at the end of September.

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