Mark Broadie’s research of the Shot Link data established a clear relationship between putt distance and % of putts made. PGA Tour pros make a very high percentage of their close putts, but only about half of their putts around 10 feet and only around one in six around 20 feet. Pros hole very few (~5%) of their longest efforts from 25 feet and beyond. That data on % of putts made for each distance now forms the backbone of the PGA Tour’s Strokes Gained Putting statistic where players are credited and debited for making or missing every putt from every distance. Over a single season Strokes Gained Putting is often an unreliable indicator of putting performance, particularly at the extremes and also for players who have putted much worse or much better than in previous seasons.
Putting performance is polluted by randomness; Tour players just don’t attempt enough putts over the course of the season to get an accurate picture of their underlying putting ability. However, to make accurate projections of putting ability, you need to know whether Graeme McDowell’s 0.9 putts gained this season represents more talent or more luck. I’ve broken down putting performance into four different distance buckets from the PGA Tour data: putts inside 5 feet, 5-15 footers, 15-25 footers, and putts outside 25 feet. The results show that putting performance is far more predictable and consistent at the short distances. Long putting is so noisy that it’s difficult to say anyone gains much of an advantage from their long putting over the long-term.
Inside 5 Feet:
These putts are almost always converted (average 96%). The spread in performance between 2011-14 was 93% to 99%. The spread in expected performance derived from weighting the previous four seasons is 94.3% to 97.8%. This indicates that we should expect every regular Tour player’s true talent from inside 5 feet to fall somewhere inside that 3.5% range. Based on an average of over 900 putts attempted inside 5 feet over a season, we should expect every regular Tour player’s talent in terms of putts gained or lost to fall between +0.2/round and -0.3/round.
The graph below shows the correlation between a three year average (2011-13) and 2014 performance for all players with qualifying rounds in all four seasons. The correlation (R=0.56) between prior performance and 2014 performance is strongest in this distance range.
5-15 foot Putts:
This length is either short birdie putts or par putts after a scrambling shot that are converted approximately half the time. The spread in performance between 2011-14 was 36% to 54%. The spread in expected performance derived from weighting the previous four seasons is 40% to 52%. Based on around 450 putts attempted from 5-15 feet over a season, we should expect every regular Tour player’s talent in terms of putts gained or lost to fall between +0.4/round and and -0.5/round. Compare that to the best putters on Tour gaining about 0.75 putts/round.
The correlation between three year average and 2014 performance is below. The correlation (R=0.53) is similar to that for the short <5 foot putts.
15-25 foot Putts:
These length are normally longer birdies putts and are converted about 16% of the time. The spread in performance between 2011-14 was 8% to 26%. The spread in expected performance derived from weighting the previous four seasons is 12% to 20%. Based on around 225 putts attempted from 15-25 feet over a season, we should expect every regular Tour player’s talent in terms of putts gained or lost to fall between +0.15/round and and -0.15/round. There’s much less at stake from this range than the previous two, just because so few putts are attempted from 15-25 feet.
The correlation between three year average and 2014 performance is below. There’s not much of a relationship (R=0.28), showing that putting performance from this range is much more affected by random chance over a full season than the shorter length putts.
Putts outside 25 feet:
These length are the longest birdie putts, often really lag putts just to get it close for par. The spread in performance between 2011-14 was 2% to 13%. The spread in expected performance derived from weighting the previous four seasons is 4% to 9%. Based on around 300 putts attempted from beyond 25 feet over a season, we should expect every regular Tour player’s talent in terms of putts gained or lost to fall between +0.1/round and and -0.1/round. Again, there’s very little difference in expected performance from this distance. Even the very best long putter on Tour will gain little from these putts – over the long term.
The correlation between three year average and 2014 performance is below. There’s almost no relationship (R=0.10), which means it’s almost impossible to predict how well a player will putt on these long putts. The top ten long putters from 2011-13 average hitting 7.6% of their putts (versus 5.5% average). They only hit 6.7% of their putts in 2014 – a regression of almost 50% to the mean.
The Big Picture:
This graph shows performance in all four ranges. The longer putts show little relationship to future performance, while the shorter putts do show a more consistent relationship. This means that players who gained a lot of putts last season based off their longer putts will start making putts at a lower rate, while those who gained a lot of putts based on shorter putts are better bets to retain that putting ability.
Most Improved Putters from 5-15 feet in 2014:
1. Graeme McDowell
2. Charley Hoffman
3. Billy Horschel
4. Justin Leonard
5. Michael Thompson
These guys have a better chance of retaining their putting performance into 2015.
Most Improved Putters from > 25 feet in 2014:
1. Rory McIlroy
2. Y.E. Yang
3. David Toms
4. Brendan Steele
5. Brian Gay
These guys look likely to regress in terms of putting performance, especially McIlroy who performed to career average on all other putts, but hit 8% more of his long putts – gaining almost a third of a putt per round over his career average.